香腸爆炸率 Sausage explosion rate
某天同事欸指著他受傷的手肘，提高了音量說：你知道這怎麼發生的嗎？！而我一如往常地賤答：當然不知道。同事欸可能習慣了我的被動型攻擊性回復，繼續講述事情的經過。所以是在燒烤的時候香腸爆炸了，裡面的油脂噴出來濺傷他手肘的皮膚。我猜他跟我說這件事的目的不是為了博得同情心，因為我當場爆笑了。後來跟麥恪旺先生轉述這件事的時候，他鎮定的回覆：這就是為什麼在英國香腸薯泥叫做爆裂（同義）薯泥。
One day colleague A pointed to his injured elbow and raised his voice, ‘did you know what happened?!’ And my normal dick response was ‘of course not.’ Colleague A was likely used to my passive aggressive response, so he just continued with his story. Apparently a sausage exploded while he was BBQing, and it was the fat from the sausage burning the skin of his elbow. I suspected that he wasn’t looking for sympathy when he shared the story with me, because I burst out laughing. When I told Mr McWang about this, he calmly replied, ‘that’s why we called them bangers, as in ‘bangers and mash’ in UK.’
這於是激起了我的好奇心（因為我跳躍式的邏輯性），所以說香腸是很容易爆炸的嗎？萬能的菇狗證明自己沒有我想像中的那麼萬能……在屢試很不爽下我能找到的資訊有（一）法院改判民法訴訟爆炸香腸案件原告敗訴（原告原獲賠一萬歐元），（二）香腸公司工廠爆炸死亡人員八人，（三）在某餐館，當服務生在燃燒的西班牙香腸上澆上蘭姆酒，導致香腸上的火難以控制，一人重傷住院兩周。真正跟同事欸相似的案件只有第一件。
The reply sparked my curiosity (likely derive from my non-linear logic), so is it easy to have sausage explosion? Google almighty has showed me that it ain’t as almighty as I’d expected it… all I can find, after various attempts, is 1) the court overturned the case where an Irish woman was originally awarded for EUR 10 grand in a civil action over ‘exploding sausage’, 2) sausage company plant explosion caused 8 deaths; 3) at a diner, the flaming chorizo sausage dish burnt out of control when a waiter topped it up with rum — one badly injured and hospitalised for two weeks. Amongst the findings, only the first case was similar to what colleague A experienced.
讓我們回到案件現場：
（一） 爆炸的香腸（凶器）：是當地肉販自製的牛肉香腸。
（二） 爆炸的時間：周末。
（三） 爆炸的場合：燒烤。雪梨。
（四） 爆炸的人員（被害者）：中青年澳洲男性白人。
Let’s go back to the crime scene:
1. Sausage of explosion (weapon): homemade beef sausage from a local butcher
2. Timing of explosion: weekend
3. Platform of explosion: BBQ grill
4. Personnel of explosion (victim): mid-age white male Aussie
那澳洲跟肉類的關係如何呢？
· 肉販店：新南威爾斯州有1,165間；澳洲共有 3,333 間 (1)
· 家裡有燒烤器具的百分比（二零一五年數據）：雪梨61.7%；澳洲 63.7% (2)
· 三十六歲到四十五歲男性人口數（二零一八年數據）：約一百六十萬人(3)
· 食用牛肉對所有肉類的機率比：20% (4)
· 食用香腸對所有加工肉類的機率比：43.5% (5)
What’s the relationship between Australia and meat?
· # of butchers: 1,165 in NSW, 3,333 in Aussie (1)
· % of household having BBQ grill (2015 statistics): 61.7% Sydney, 63.7% Aussie total (2)
· # of male ages 36 to 45 (2018 statistics): ~1.6 million (3)
· Likelihood of consuming beef amongst all type of meat: 20% (4)
· Likelihood of consuming sausages amongst processed meat: 43.5% (5)
光就香腸對所有加工肉類的食用機率比，就可以了解澳洲人對香腸的熱愛。但是牛肉的食用機率比並不高。總的來說，每次燒烤裡要烤上牛肉香腸的機率約莫只有八趴上下。雖然我可以多做一些假設來計算香腸爆炸機率，但是光就一個同事欸的案例實在不足以支撐香腸爆炸率的計算，所以我只能殘念了。
Judging by the ‘likelihood of consuming sausages amongst processed meat’, we can see Aussie’s passion for sausages. However the beef consumption likelihood isn’t high. Consequently, there’s only about 8% of chance to grill beef sausages in each BBQ. Despite the fact that I could come up with more assumptions to calculate the probabilities of sausage explosion rate, one case study of colleague A isn’t sufficient to support the calculation further, therefore I folded.
(1) Butchers counts: https://corelist.com.au/butchers-in-australia/
(2) BBQ per household: http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6752-is-australia-barbecue-hotspot-of-the-world-201604072313
(3) Aussie Demograph: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography_of_Australia
(4) ABS on Australia Day: https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mediareleasesbyReleaseDate/3FF7CB3E0FE44DE4CA25821F0071F56E?OpenDocument
(5) Statista https://www.statista.com/outlook/40020000/107/processed-meat/australia
